Kelly,
I am not entirely sure who you are or what portion of your livelihood you sold to what evil entity, but I ask that you continue to hold up your end of the bargain. It seems to be working out for you. Enjoy the comforts of Chase Field and the warm dry air of AZ-it is likely only slightly cooler than your impending final resting place, so you should be fine. If no deal was made, please wait til October to announce the results of you PED tests. Kelly Johnson--I love you and I am pulling for you.
Sincerely Yours,
Deuce
xoxo
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Friday, April 23, 2010
A Centaur Marking his Territory
The whole league has been out of the posting habit lately--I will blame the recent stir caused by the birth of the starting SS for the 2032 Pittsburgh Pirates(if Bud Selig does not contract them for the good of the league by then.) But the whole Dallas Braden v. Alex Rodriguez in a celebrity deathmatch debacle has gotten me off track at work on a Friday afternoon. Obviously, not a difficult task. And discussing this issue gives me a great chance to link to this picture. I am not even entirely sure if I care if it is fake. But the Dallas Braden approach is more what fires me up. The A's don't really have anyone of note on their roster, excepting maybe Andrew Bailey and Brett Anderson, so it intrigues me that when the big bad Yankees come to town we see Braden stepping up to one of the more decorated players in the game.
Admittedly, not even a speck on A-Rod's radar--Braden took control of a commonly accepted "guideline" in baseball. Only pitchers get to touch the mound. And he let the whole world know that the Oakland Athletics are not going to lay down, even for the World Series Champs.
If you watch the video found here, you will see what the buzz is about.
I tried to cherry pick some great quotes, but the best I can do is the quote from Braden which summarizes the issue to me.
"After the double play, he was looking at me and [cupped] his ear like, 'What did you say?'" Braden explained. "I made sure he understood me.
Admittedly, not even a speck on A-Rod's radar--Braden took control of a commonly accepted "guideline" in baseball. Only pitchers get to touch the mound. And he let the whole world know that the Oakland Athletics are not going to lay down, even for the World Series Champs.
If you watch the video found here, you will see what the buzz is about.
I tried to cherry pick some great quotes, but the best I can do is the quote from Braden which summarizes the issue to me.
"After the double play, he was looking at me and [cupped] his ear like, 'What did you say?'" Braden explained. "I made sure he understood me.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
I Crush Men
I have three Brian's on my team, three Yankees and three Braves so all is right in the world. I am sure the manliest-man-crushfest of all time, GIAMBI and me, will soon reunite but for now, he is cheering me on from the wire. (I swear if Helton gets hurt I get GIAMBI. I am keeping my waiver position just in case.)
Unlike Webb, my man-crush doesn't come along due to performance but rather something I cannot explain. I really only have one rule when it comes to a man-crush ... the dude has to be white. I ain't into the jungle fever thing.
If you read Webb's previous article, he mentioned the trade that nabbed him Justin Upton, his new man-crush. He assured me Ellsbury (my young man-crush) would be there for me later in the round. Royce picked him up a couple picks earlier. I could have squashed Webb like a bug. I love Ellsbury and for what reason? No idea. I even hate the Red Sox.
Anyway, back to my team. The three Brian's are Brian McCann, Brian Roberts and Brian Wilson. I care less about Wilson so he's out. McCann is a Brave which immediately earns brownie points. Roberts is the most beautiful man on the planet and I wept when I traded him last year (to Webb of all people). He is back on my team to stay. While I love McCann for multiple reasons, I don't have an official man-crush on him.
Derek Jeter and Andy Pettitte ... two of my Yankees. Now we're talking. These guys have been staples on my teams for years and years. Jeter is untradable. He is the icon of the most historic team in the greatest city in the world.
I also have the new greatest player in the world, Jason Heyward, who I drafted 438 rounds before most people. But, refer back to my one rule.
Why the heck am I even naming all these players? I could have written a two word post. Everyone knows what is coming.
Derek Jeter ... white enough.
Unlike Webb, my man-crush doesn't come along due to performance but rather something I cannot explain. I really only have one rule when it comes to a man-crush ... the dude has to be white. I ain't into the jungle fever thing.
If you read Webb's previous article, he mentioned the trade that nabbed him Justin Upton, his new man-crush. He assured me Ellsbury (my young man-crush) would be there for me later in the round. Royce picked him up a couple picks earlier. I could have squashed Webb like a bug. I love Ellsbury and for what reason? No idea. I even hate the Red Sox.
Anyway, back to my team. The three Brian's are Brian McCann, Brian Roberts and Brian Wilson. I care less about Wilson so he's out. McCann is a Brave which immediately earns brownie points. Roberts is the most beautiful man on the planet and I wept when I traded him last year (to Webb of all people). He is back on my team to stay. While I love McCann for multiple reasons, I don't have an official man-crush on him.
Derek Jeter and Andy Pettitte ... two of my Yankees. Now we're talking. These guys have been staples on my teams for years and years. Jeter is untradable. He is the icon of the most historic team in the greatest city in the world.
I also have the new greatest player in the world, Jason Heyward, who I drafted 438 rounds before most people. But, refer back to my one rule.
Why the heck am I even naming all these players? I could have written a two word post. Everyone knows what is coming.
Derek Jeter ... white enough.
Man-Crush Time
Everyone has one. The guy that they HAVE to have no matter the price, whether it means drafting a 7th rounder in the 3rd or trading a 1st rounder to get a guy in the minors. Everyone has a man-crush... except me apparently.
Our league is known for recycling players from year to year, i.e. if a guy owned Chipper Jones one year, he is more likely to own him the following year than someone else. Maybe it is a coincidence. I am not sure. Regardless, it has happened for years with numerous players and teams.
I somehow drafted a team where the only players I have previously owned were Brad Lidge(back when he was Octavio Dotel's setup man in Houston), Francisco Liriano(the pre-TJ surgery, Cy Young candidate version), Alfonso Soriano(whom I owned for all of 1 week before sending him on his way for Doc Halladay) and Daniel Bard(the young-gun setup man for Boston). So as much as I would like to list Daniel Bard as a man-crush, I just can't in good conscience pick a setup guy as a man-crush. Sorry.
So, let's take a look at the contenders from this year's squad for my brand new man-crush. I have it narrowed down to the following: Ryan Braun, Justin Upton, and Stephen Strasburg.
Ryan Braun
Pro's: Pujols-lite. Crazy consistent. I had him on my MLB The Show team. Hated amongst members of our league (see nickname "Wide-Eyed Pixie Fuck"). Young. Progressing each year.
Con's: 1st rounder(it is more fun to own someone that is not as known a quantity). Hated amongst members of our league(I get enough shit as is). Plays for the Brewers(NL Central is for pussies).
Justin Upton
Pro's: To borrow from Jay Bilas, Upton has "tremendous upside potential". I had him on my MLB The Show team. Better than his brother, who is on Deuce's team. Still only 16 or something. He is getting the Yates treatment on my team, i.e. I will never, ever, ever, ever, ever trade him, even if it will help my team. I stole him from multiple teams by trading up to draft him. Said move was responded to with multiple expletives. I love him.
Con's: Not a proven quantity. Been on DL each of past 2 years. Plays in front of old people. Has been owned by Nathan before and he sucks at fantasy sports.
Stephen Strasburg
Pro's: Electric arm. Dominated in college. Played for Tony Gwynn at said college. Tony Gwynn was fat and hit over .300 for his career. Had nut-duster at one point. I have to keep him after reaching for him in the draft.
Con's: Never thrown a pitch in the Major Leagues. Had a nut-duster at one point. Not starting in Majors. Could be the next #1 overall MLB draft pick flop. Plays for a shitty-ass team that cannot even spell "Nationals" correctly.
In the end, it came down to Justin Upton and Stephen Strasburg, as I said earlier, it is more fun to crush on a not so known quantity. In the end, it was not that tough of a decision for me. Justin Upton is the clear winner. He will lead my team to victory for many years and piss everyone off in the process. That is all I need from my man-crush. Thanks again Bear. Enjoy Ellsbury and Heyward. Oh wait...
Our league is known for recycling players from year to year, i.e. if a guy owned Chipper Jones one year, he is more likely to own him the following year than someone else. Maybe it is a coincidence. I am not sure. Regardless, it has happened for years with numerous players and teams.
I somehow drafted a team where the only players I have previously owned were Brad Lidge(back when he was Octavio Dotel's setup man in Houston), Francisco Liriano(the pre-TJ surgery, Cy Young candidate version), Alfonso Soriano(whom I owned for all of 1 week before sending him on his way for Doc Halladay) and Daniel Bard(the young-gun setup man for Boston). So as much as I would like to list Daniel Bard as a man-crush, I just can't in good conscience pick a setup guy as a man-crush. Sorry.
So, let's take a look at the contenders from this year's squad for my brand new man-crush. I have it narrowed down to the following: Ryan Braun, Justin Upton, and Stephen Strasburg.
Ryan Braun
Pro's: Pujols-lite. Crazy consistent. I had him on my MLB The Show team. Hated amongst members of our league (see nickname "Wide-Eyed Pixie Fuck"). Young. Progressing each year.
Con's: 1st rounder(it is more fun to own someone that is not as known a quantity). Hated amongst members of our league(I get enough shit as is). Plays for the Brewers(NL Central is for pussies).
Justin Upton
Pro's: To borrow from Jay Bilas, Upton has "tremendous upside potential". I had him on my MLB The Show team. Better than his brother, who is on Deuce's team. Still only 16 or something. He is getting the Yates treatment on my team, i.e. I will never, ever, ever, ever, ever trade him, even if it will help my team. I stole him from multiple teams by trading up to draft him. Said move was responded to with multiple expletives. I love him.
Con's: Not a proven quantity. Been on DL each of past 2 years. Plays in front of old people. Has been owned by Nathan before and he sucks at fantasy sports.
Stephen Strasburg
Pro's: Electric arm. Dominated in college. Played for Tony Gwynn at said college. Tony Gwynn was fat and hit over .300 for his career. Had nut-duster at one point. I have to keep him after reaching for him in the draft.
Con's: Never thrown a pitch in the Major Leagues. Had a nut-duster at one point. Not starting in Majors. Could be the next #1 overall MLB draft pick flop. Plays for a shitty-ass team that cannot even spell "Nationals" correctly.
In the end, it came down to Justin Upton and Stephen Strasburg, as I said earlier, it is more fun to crush on a not so known quantity. In the end, it was not that tough of a decision for me. Justin Upton is the clear winner. He will lead my team to victory for many years and piss everyone off in the process. That is all I need from my man-crush. Thanks again Bear. Enjoy Ellsbury and Heyward. Oh wait...
Man Crush Index
Side Note:I started writing this about a week ago. My life has been crazy with In-laws and baby anticipation etc since then. Pretend like it all just happened.
So I just traded for Pedro Alvarez. With him on the cover of every fantasy rookie preview(that does not have Jason Heyward) I had to take a stab at him. I am a Pirates fan and the most highly touted prospect since 1984 has quite a bit of interest in my mind, but likely more so in my heart.
Previous to today, Alvarez would have been my man crush, but Garrett "The LEGEND" Jones hit 2 home runs today(one well into the Allegheny River) and Carlos Gonzalez, the aforementioned "reach alert" pick, went 4-5, so I have to pick from those 2. I love opening day. Jones is on pace to break every HR record ever(PED era or drink til you puke era included) and I love my fantasy team. This will surely change in a week's time--much like the Pirates staying atop the NL Central, but when else in the past 17 years could a Pirates fan be so excited.
So that makes my Man Crush discussion short. It is Garrett Jones. He is a freak and has many doubters which makes it more fun to be in a fictional bromance with him. The guy has defied all odds. Drafted by Atlanta in 1999 in the 14th round, Jones has been with many organizations, spent an ordinate amount of time in the minors and basically had to fall to a team with no organizational depth to get a shot. But since appearing in the majors in 2007 with MIN, he has slugged his way to 25 HRs in under 400 at bats with a .276/.355/.522 triple slash. You take out the brief stint in MIN and the line looks more like .293/.372/.567--not including today's 2-4 day with 2 more homers. I have no idea how long he can keep this up, but I for one will enjoy it until it ends. Hopefully sometime in 2013 when the Pirates are respectable and my soon to be born child has just completed it's first no-hitter in T-ball.
So I just traded for Pedro Alvarez. With him on the cover of every fantasy rookie preview(that does not have Jason Heyward) I had to take a stab at him. I am a Pirates fan and the most highly touted prospect since 1984 has quite a bit of interest in my mind, but likely more so in my heart.
Previous to today, Alvarez would have been my man crush, but Garrett "The LEGEND" Jones hit 2 home runs today(one well into the Allegheny River) and Carlos Gonzalez, the aforementioned "reach alert" pick, went 4-5, so I have to pick from those 2. I love opening day. Jones is on pace to break every HR record ever(PED era or drink til you puke era included) and I love my fantasy team. This will surely change in a week's time--much like the Pirates staying atop the NL Central, but when else in the past 17 years could a Pirates fan be so excited.
So that makes my Man Crush discussion short. It is Garrett Jones. He is a freak and has many doubters which makes it more fun to be in a fictional bromance with him. The guy has defied all odds. Drafted by Atlanta in 1999 in the 14th round, Jones has been with many organizations, spent an ordinate amount of time in the minors and basically had to fall to a team with no organizational depth to get a shot. But since appearing in the majors in 2007 with MIN, he has slugged his way to 25 HRs in under 400 at bats with a .276/.355/.522 triple slash. You take out the brief stint in MIN and the line looks more like .293/.372/.567--not including today's 2-4 day with 2 more homers. I have no idea how long he can keep this up, but I for one will enjoy it until it ends. Hopefully sometime in 2013 when the Pirates are respectable and my soon to be born child has just completed it's first no-hitter in T-ball.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Trades? We don't need no stinking Trades.
So I faced a terrible situation after the draft wrapped up. I had multiple pitchers in the first 10 rounds, I had 3 Braves on my team, and I basically had no 3B and no 2B. I could justify running Kelly Johnson out there at 2B every day for a couple of reasons. 1-he is no longer a Brave. 2-He can't actually be as bad as he was last year, right? 3-I have Jose Reyes as my middle infielder and Hanley Ramirez as my SS. So let's cross that problem off the list.
I must offer a little background. I am quickly approaching 27 years of age. The last time the Pirates were good, we lost to the Braves in the NLCS(circa 1992 for those of you still in High School who have no recollection of the Pirates being good.) Being a Pirates fan I have many teams that I love to cheer against--anyone who has had a winning season in 18 years--but the Braves have a special place in my mind for ripping out my heart with the dreaded Sid Bream rounding 3B on two surgically repaired knees(back when surgery on knees was a death sentence) and Barry Bonds rolling the ball halfway up the first base line to Mike "Spanky" Lavalliere. I was 9 years old at this time, and I can not get the images out of my head. Here's to 2012 bucco fans.
So back to my team. Right now I have too many pitchers and Chipper Jones at 3B. And the pitchers included are Tommy "wunderkind" Hanson and Jair "fresh off a breakout" Jurrjens. Notice the Braves theme? So I am in a position to start building a 3B, right?
The first trade included Chipper and Jair for Mike Young and Rick Porcello. I made this move mainly to get rid of a 3B who would likely play 120 games if I was lucky, and to take upside on the pitcher portion. I clearly lose the Jair/Porcello portion on the front end, but I also feel Jair's value will not be higher unless he repeats his 2009 performance. I put this at about a 33% possibility.
This thinking could be a direct result of my Braves hatred, but it hinges on the idea that shoulder soreness has already shown its ugly face, he does not have a history of stats to support his breakout(drastic drops in BABIP, drastic increase in LOB%, and did I mention--he is a Brave)--Honestly I expect i pretty good year from Jurrjens, but I wanted to give Porcello a try while he was not on the short leash the Tigers had him on last year. I expect his K numbers to increase as he looks to get guys out on his own rather than pitching to contact due to pretty strict pitch restrictions.
The Mike Young for Chipper portion was basically a quick easy and justifiable way to get rid of the face of the Braves franchise for all the years that they could have been the Pirates and vice versa if it was not for that one sequence. I get consistency and possibly give up a little on power upside, but both these guys have left their best years in the past.
So now, I have a slight upgrade at 3B who supplies average, hits in a good park and has a solid supporting cast. A younger pitcher(hard to do with my staff) with more upside who is poised for a true fantasy breakout to follow up a sparkling real-life rookie campaign. And the guy plays for who else, Jim Leyland. But I have to ask myself, is Mike Young going to be my everyday 3B?
I made several stabs at perennial first/second rounders Evan Longoria and David Wright with varying levels of interest and decided to table my search. I was not particularly happy with the idea of moving Felix right after he melted fantasy hearts last year and the defense in SEA is going to make any pitcher better than they are. So after a day or two sitting on my options, someone offers a trade. Tommy Hanson and Mike Young for David Wright and Scott Baker.
This trade caught me totally off guard. I had to actually go look and see who Scott Baker was. It turns out, he is one of the most underrated SP out there. His ERA is not great. His win total is not great. His Ks are not great. but he goes out there, pitches within himself and will be the perfect compliment to my younger more erratic arms. I worry about Wright and his power numbers but feel he is a shoe-in to hit 300 and get close to 100 RBI and Runs even on an off year, and I gain about 15 Steals. Wright had an historic breakdown last year and still went for .307 88 10 72 and 27. I take the deal.
As soon as I take the deal, I hate myself for trading away a pitcher who has the promise of a Tim Lincecum in 2008. Could he run off several Cy Young's in a row? Could he be the man in ATL for years to come? Could he single-handedly make me regret trading(I swore off trading a few years ago, but then decided to do it again because I hate being that guy?) Check back in June, and I will let you know how I feel, but I am generally happy with my team. Now I need pitching.
I must offer a little background. I am quickly approaching 27 years of age. The last time the Pirates were good, we lost to the Braves in the NLCS(circa 1992 for those of you still in High School who have no recollection of the Pirates being good.) Being a Pirates fan I have many teams that I love to cheer against--anyone who has had a winning season in 18 years--but the Braves have a special place in my mind for ripping out my heart with the dreaded Sid Bream rounding 3B on two surgically repaired knees(back when surgery on knees was a death sentence) and Barry Bonds rolling the ball halfway up the first base line to Mike "Spanky" Lavalliere. I was 9 years old at this time, and I can not get the images out of my head. Here's to 2012 bucco fans.
So back to my team. Right now I have too many pitchers and Chipper Jones at 3B. And the pitchers included are Tommy "wunderkind" Hanson and Jair "fresh off a breakout" Jurrjens. Notice the Braves theme? So I am in a position to start building a 3B, right?
The first trade included Chipper and Jair for Mike Young and Rick Porcello. I made this move mainly to get rid of a 3B who would likely play 120 games if I was lucky, and to take upside on the pitcher portion. I clearly lose the Jair/Porcello portion on the front end, but I also feel Jair's value will not be higher unless he repeats his 2009 performance. I put this at about a 33% possibility.
This thinking could be a direct result of my Braves hatred, but it hinges on the idea that shoulder soreness has already shown its ugly face, he does not have a history of stats to support his breakout(drastic drops in BABIP, drastic increase in LOB%, and did I mention--he is a Brave)--Honestly I expect i pretty good year from Jurrjens, but I wanted to give Porcello a try while he was not on the short leash the Tigers had him on last year. I expect his K numbers to increase as he looks to get guys out on his own rather than pitching to contact due to pretty strict pitch restrictions.
The Mike Young for Chipper portion was basically a quick easy and justifiable way to get rid of the face of the Braves franchise for all the years that they could have been the Pirates and vice versa if it was not for that one sequence. I get consistency and possibly give up a little on power upside, but both these guys have left their best years in the past.
So now, I have a slight upgrade at 3B who supplies average, hits in a good park and has a solid supporting cast. A younger pitcher(hard to do with my staff) with more upside who is poised for a true fantasy breakout to follow up a sparkling real-life rookie campaign. And the guy plays for who else, Jim Leyland. But I have to ask myself, is Mike Young going to be my everyday 3B?
I made several stabs at perennial first/second rounders Evan Longoria and David Wright with varying levels of interest and decided to table my search. I was not particularly happy with the idea of moving Felix right after he melted fantasy hearts last year and the defense in SEA is going to make any pitcher better than they are. So after a day or two sitting on my options, someone offers a trade. Tommy Hanson and Mike Young for David Wright and Scott Baker.
This trade caught me totally off guard. I had to actually go look and see who Scott Baker was. It turns out, he is one of the most underrated SP out there. His ERA is not great. His win total is not great. His Ks are not great. but he goes out there, pitches within himself and will be the perfect compliment to my younger more erratic arms. I worry about Wright and his power numbers but feel he is a shoe-in to hit 300 and get close to 100 RBI and Runs even on an off year, and I gain about 15 Steals. Wright had an historic breakdown last year and still went for .307 88 10 72 and 27. I take the deal.
As soon as I take the deal, I hate myself for trading away a pitcher who has the promise of a Tim Lincecum in 2008. Could he run off several Cy Young's in a row? Could he be the man in ATL for years to come? Could he single-handedly make me regret trading(I swore off trading a few years ago, but then decided to do it again because I hate being that guy?) Check back in June, and I will let you know how I feel, but I am generally happy with my team. Now I need pitching.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Anyone Can Play Guitar....or Blog
first, i want to thank the academy, pookie, ray ray, my parents, tim tebow, al gore for the internet, and my Lord and Saviour, Jesus Christ, for making this blog possible. moving right ahead to team lollygaggers picks: teixeira, wright, a-gonz (great value), aaron hill, v-mart, choo. he obviously has a solid start with a strong foundation at the corners and a little position scarcity sprinkled in too. side note: i'm a position scarcity junkie so extra points for having a top flight catcher and middle infielder
josh johnson
i know we're focusing on 8-12 but this was a really solid pick in the 7th. most of the room was still applauding the picks of hanson and hamels earlier in the round, but johnson was the better of them last year and likely this year as well. johnson finished ahead of lester on our player rater last year, but was selected 30 picks after him in this draft. 5 gold stars for this pick or wrecks on white
chad billingsley
first, i'm not a general fan of bills. he's consistently had issues with walks and control, as evidenced by a career walk rate of 4bb/9, elevated pitch counts, and posted an era on the wrong side of 5 in the second half last season. as a pitcher who relies on stuff, eras that high over a prolonged period lead me to believe his elbow may have been hurting. my personal preference would have been to see wandy go here instead of bills. 3 meatball subs or checkmarks
yunel escobar
at this point, shortstops are starting to be pretty thin. no one wants to face the decision between yuniesky betancourt and jack wilson. escobar was slated to go almost exactly here, and it was a nice need-fill pick. 4 lenny's italian subs or smiley face stickers
scott baker
if you are a family member of team lollygaggers, i encourage you to look away and scroll down to the next pick. there's no other way to say it. i hated this pick. he is a control artist with stuff that is too "short" to ever push his k/9 north of 7. at times, he can buoy your whip but with brett anderson, lackey, garza, and jurrjens still on board, this pick sucked. 1 flaming bag of shit or a kick in the nuts
brian fuentes
fuentes is a solid pick if only for the fact that team lollygaggers made sure to not get left out in the cold on closers before its too late. 3 smiley face stickers or meatball subs
alex rios
fortunately, there is no penalty in our league for a player having one of the worst contracts in baseball. fiscal concerns aside, rios is a bounce-back candidate. the potential is still there for 20-20 and if he's going to find it any park, its in comiskey (i refuse to call it us cellular). after going on a bit of a pitcher binge, team lollygaggers found itself with only 1 outfielder. my personal rankings had mclouth for power/speed, quentin & ludwick for power, or speed merchants morgan, bourn, & davis (who was later drafted by lollygaggers) ahead of the directionless rios but the pick is certainly justifiable. 2 turkey and cheese sandwiches or a participation certificate
overall, i like lollygaggers draft. his middle rounds ran into a bit of a speed bump, though, with a personal run on limited upside starting pitching.
josh johnson
i know we're focusing on 8-12 but this was a really solid pick in the 7th. most of the room was still applauding the picks of hanson and hamels earlier in the round, but johnson was the better of them last year and likely this year as well. johnson finished ahead of lester on our player rater last year, but was selected 30 picks after him in this draft. 5 gold stars for this pick or wrecks on white
chad billingsley
first, i'm not a general fan of bills. he's consistently had issues with walks and control, as evidenced by a career walk rate of 4bb/9, elevated pitch counts, and posted an era on the wrong side of 5 in the second half last season. as a pitcher who relies on stuff, eras that high over a prolonged period lead me to believe his elbow may have been hurting. my personal preference would have been to see wandy go here instead of bills. 3 meatball subs or checkmarks
yunel escobar
at this point, shortstops are starting to be pretty thin. no one wants to face the decision between yuniesky betancourt and jack wilson. escobar was slated to go almost exactly here, and it was a nice need-fill pick. 4 lenny's italian subs or smiley face stickers
scott baker
if you are a family member of team lollygaggers, i encourage you to look away and scroll down to the next pick. there's no other way to say it. i hated this pick. he is a control artist with stuff that is too "short" to ever push his k/9 north of 7. at times, he can buoy your whip but with brett anderson, lackey, garza, and jurrjens still on board, this pick sucked. 1 flaming bag of shit or a kick in the nuts
brian fuentes
fuentes is a solid pick if only for the fact that team lollygaggers made sure to not get left out in the cold on closers before its too late. 3 smiley face stickers or meatball subs
alex rios
fortunately, there is no penalty in our league for a player having one of the worst contracts in baseball. fiscal concerns aside, rios is a bounce-back candidate. the potential is still there for 20-20 and if he's going to find it any park, its in comiskey (i refuse to call it us cellular). after going on a bit of a pitcher binge, team lollygaggers found itself with only 1 outfielder. my personal rankings had mclouth for power/speed, quentin & ludwick for power, or speed merchants morgan, bourn, & davis (who was later drafted by lollygaggers) ahead of the directionless rios but the pick is certainly justifiable. 2 turkey and cheese sandwiches or a participation certificate
overall, i like lollygaggers draft. his middle rounds ran into a bit of a speed bump, though, with a personal run on limited upside starting pitching.
My Turn in the Draft Sweet Spot
Alright, so I get a shot at this new little game. I took exception with some of Deuce's assessments of my team and I have little doubt Luke will have a few of his own when I am done here.
So let us start with the keeper rounds + 1: Arod, Halladay, Rollins, McCutchen, Granderson, Beckett, Beckham. A nice haul for the early rounds of a keeper league. I love Granderson's potential in that lineup hitting balls into that porch and he got him below slot for his ADP. McCutchen was over coveted in our league going in the mid-40s while his ADP is anywhere from mid-60s to early 80s depending on the publication (Yahoo and Roto). So flip those two guys and I guess you have them in their right spot. Beckham is the one that really surprises me here, but he can hit and can play into his 75 draft position easily. Now on to what really matters, the Sweet Spot.
Round 8, Hunter Pence
Hunter Pence is Luke's crack. He loves Hunter Pence like I love cake. He isn't a reach, and actually a little behind schedule with his ADP. His power and speed are stable, he figured out the strike out problem from 2008, and he isn't injury prone. However, the reason I don't like this pick is because he already has two OFs early. Luke was stuck in a weird spot, the next two non-OF position players to fall were 2B and they didn't go for another full round. So perhaps it was the best bat available, maybe it was too early to go with a closer and with Halladay and Beckett he felt comfortable with his SP. I think he should have done something different, but at least he has OF locked up and start chasing other positions.
Round 9, Andrew Bailey
So much for making excuses for Luke, just 5 picks later, he grabs the 5th closer off the board and the third in the three picks in a closer run. (Note: Our league is prone to closer runs) Andrew Bailey is a stud, with all the upside in the world and at the time this pick was made, no reports of elbow problems had surfaced. He says he will be ready for opening day, and if that is the case, better for Luke. Hopefully he is a better dancer than Papelbon because he has the ability to be the next young stud closer.
Round 10, Matt Garza
Will the real Matt Garza please stand up. Man, what a nice jump in K rate from 2008 to 2009, 2 full Ks per inning. Wow, what terrible jumps in BB rate, HRs allowed, and ERA. The good thing is WHIP stayed steady. Garza is a good pitcher, and could still bust out and be an absolute stud. Is he a risk here? If he lands somewhere between 08 and 09, no. Is he steal? If he figures out how to match his BB rate, and minimize HR allowed from 08 coupled with the K rate from 09, yes probably so.
Round 11, Carlos Pena
I love Carlos Pena, two years ago he helped carry me into the finals of our league. But he was hitting with some guys with really good averages (Albert, Miggy, and Young) and his wasn't so terrible. For Luke, it addresses his hole at 1B with most of the big hitters already gone and he gets the last slugger CI. Also this was pick 123, his ADP for Rotoworld is 74. Not a bad pull for the 11 round, with 40HR, 100RBI .800+ OPS potential, but what I don't like about it is another sub-.250 avg. I try to stay away from the big avg drains without drafting high avg guys to compliment them. Luke apparently embraces them, at this point in the draft he still doesn't have a batter that hit over .290 last year. Still, the pick fills a hole and even though it is an avg drain, the counting numbers and OPS are huge.
Round 12, Russell Martin
What can you say, only the 5 catcher to come off the board at this point, this guy was a keeper last year. Sure, there is some fear the Dodgers have already ruined him a la the Cubs with Wood and Prior (a jab at Lucas the Cub fan). He is going to spend some time on the DL so I am sure Luke will be picking up a substitute, but if he gets back in late April and produces at 07-08 range then this is a huge steal. If Torre truly has ruined his power and speed with too much work, then it is way too early to be drafting a catcher with his production. (Full disclosure: I have never taken a catcher earlier than the 23 round.) Big risk here, and frankly I don't like it. But I will address that more in a moment...
To sum it up, Luke did a good job at getting great value with each of his picks. He didn't reach, he took guys with high ceilings and basements that aren't too deep. He took a chance with some potential lingering issues in Bailey and Martin. All in all there isn't a ton I can say bad about each of the picks individually, however, at this point in the draft (and admittedly after the draft too) I don't think he has done a great job of assembling a team. The value is good but the stats don't complement each other incredibly well. At this point in the draft, he has no 2B, which means all that is left is scraps at the scarce position. His pitching is solid but I would have like to see him try to get something a little different out of the Beckham, Pence, Pena and Martin picks. All in all, the picks weren't bad, and those looking for trades, come to Luke early and often and no doubt he will be using surpluses at OF and SP to fill other needs.
Leaving the Sweet Spot,
RoyceClaytonKershaw
So let us start with the keeper rounds + 1: Arod, Halladay, Rollins, McCutchen, Granderson, Beckett, Beckham. A nice haul for the early rounds of a keeper league. I love Granderson's potential in that lineup hitting balls into that porch and he got him below slot for his ADP. McCutchen was over coveted in our league going in the mid-40s while his ADP is anywhere from mid-60s to early 80s depending on the publication (Yahoo and Roto). So flip those two guys and I guess you have them in their right spot. Beckham is the one that really surprises me here, but he can hit and can play into his 75 draft position easily. Now on to what really matters, the Sweet Spot.
Round 8, Hunter Pence
Hunter Pence is Luke's crack. He loves Hunter Pence like I love cake. He isn't a reach, and actually a little behind schedule with his ADP. His power and speed are stable, he figured out the strike out problem from 2008, and he isn't injury prone. However, the reason I don't like this pick is because he already has two OFs early. Luke was stuck in a weird spot, the next two non-OF position players to fall were 2B and they didn't go for another full round. So perhaps it was the best bat available, maybe it was too early to go with a closer and with Halladay and Beckett he felt comfortable with his SP. I think he should have done something different, but at least he has OF locked up and start chasing other positions.
Round 9, Andrew Bailey
So much for making excuses for Luke, just 5 picks later, he grabs the 5th closer off the board and the third in the three picks in a closer run. (Note: Our league is prone to closer runs) Andrew Bailey is a stud, with all the upside in the world and at the time this pick was made, no reports of elbow problems had surfaced. He says he will be ready for opening day, and if that is the case, better for Luke. Hopefully he is a better dancer than Papelbon because he has the ability to be the next young stud closer.
Round 10, Matt Garza
Will the real Matt Garza please stand up. Man, what a nice jump in K rate from 2008 to 2009, 2 full Ks per inning. Wow, what terrible jumps in BB rate, HRs allowed, and ERA. The good thing is WHIP stayed steady. Garza is a good pitcher, and could still bust out and be an absolute stud. Is he a risk here? If he lands somewhere between 08 and 09, no. Is he steal? If he figures out how to match his BB rate, and minimize HR allowed from 08 coupled with the K rate from 09, yes probably so.
Round 11, Carlos Pena
I love Carlos Pena, two years ago he helped carry me into the finals of our league. But he was hitting with some guys with really good averages (Albert, Miggy, and Young) and his wasn't so terrible. For Luke, it addresses his hole at 1B with most of the big hitters already gone and he gets the last slugger CI. Also this was pick 123, his ADP for Rotoworld is 74. Not a bad pull for the 11 round, with 40HR, 100RBI .800+ OPS potential, but what I don't like about it is another sub-.250 avg. I try to stay away from the big avg drains without drafting high avg guys to compliment them. Luke apparently embraces them, at this point in the draft he still doesn't have a batter that hit over .290 last year. Still, the pick fills a hole and even though it is an avg drain, the counting numbers and OPS are huge.
Round 12, Russell Martin
What can you say, only the 5 catcher to come off the board at this point, this guy was a keeper last year. Sure, there is some fear the Dodgers have already ruined him a la the Cubs with Wood and Prior (a jab at Lucas the Cub fan). He is going to spend some time on the DL so I am sure Luke will be picking up a substitute, but if he gets back in late April and produces at 07-08 range then this is a huge steal. If Torre truly has ruined his power and speed with too much work, then it is way too early to be drafting a catcher with his production. (Full disclosure: I have never taken a catcher earlier than the 23 round.) Big risk here, and frankly I don't like it. But I will address that more in a moment...
To sum it up, Luke did a good job at getting great value with each of his picks. He didn't reach, he took guys with high ceilings and basements that aren't too deep. He took a chance with some potential lingering issues in Bailey and Martin. All in all there isn't a ton I can say bad about each of the picks individually, however, at this point in the draft (and admittedly after the draft too) I don't think he has done a great job of assembling a team. The value is good but the stats don't complement each other incredibly well. At this point in the draft, he has no 2B, which means all that is left is scraps at the scarce position. His pitching is solid but I would have like to see him try to get something a little different out of the Beckham, Pence, Pena and Martin picks. All in all, the picks weren't bad, and those looking for trades, come to Luke early and often and no doubt he will be using surpluses at OF and SP to fill other needs.
Leaving the Sweet Spot,
RoyceClaytonKershaw
The Draft Sweet Spot, continued...
Ok, so I took my shot at Webb and he fired back. I actually like his picks in 8-12 more than mine. As anyone will tell you, if it were possible--I would have no closers on my team. I actually did that one year and all my SU guys turned into closers by the end of the year. If there is a position in baseball with higher turnover, I can't think of it. let's look at Team B.
We start off with a base of Miguel Cabrera, Jacoby Elsbury, Robinson Cano, John Lester, Mark Reynolds, Alexei Ramirez, and Ubaldo Jimenez. A nice blend of bounceback and proven commodities--little upside outside of Elsbury but solid. I think you will see that pattern continue in rounds 8-12.
Michael Young
Proven guy with little upside, but I suppose you know what you will get. I would like to go on record at this point by saying that I do not consider little upside a "bad" thing simply a thing. I wish I had the "old man skills" to accomplish. I like young here as a compliment to a solid base. high avg and consistency at 3B is something I chased too(read:Chipper Jones if he stays off the DL).
Torii Hunter
Near and dear to my heart as the kid who made it out of Pine Bluff, AR and stole our hearts with HR robbing catches against the baggy(I also hold the robbed HR of the ASG against Barry Lamar Bonds in a special place in my heart--even if Barry was cheating, he owned that entire year and Torii stole a little piece from him). Notice everything I said has to do with the past? That is where Hunter's best years will be found. However, even a slight regression from last year's production puts Torii in the .285 85 20 85 15 range. With Jay Bruce and Denard Span going on either side of him in the draft, I would say this pick stands out as safe and quite frankly smart if you were going OF in this round. Could have been worse--Team B could have picked a closer coming off his worst season ever in this round(like I did.)
Huston Street
See what I mean? Could have been worse. Jake Peavy, Scott Baker, Jered Weaver, John Lackey and Brett Anderson flanked this pick. Although Street withstood the dreaded spring MRI with little to no damage visible, we did not know this 3 days ago. He had a great year last year and should continue to do well for an exciting young Rockies squad. Team B took a chance here and it seems to have paid off so far. This closer is gonna be the top closer on Team B and will have to carry the load with Rauch and the ageless Hoffman accompanying him in the bullpen. I always hate closers, but they are a necessary evil. I think the manager of team C would be more than happy with 30+ saves and an ERA right around 3 like we saw last year. The only real fear here is injury, which would explain why he fell to round ten. If it weren't for the next guy, this would be the biggest risk in the "sweet spot" for Team B. Which brings me to Roy Oswalt.
Roy Oswalt
Almost the exact opposite of Street, this picked was flanked with RP. All guys who have established roles and are not sexy. So this one is a bit of a head scratch-er for me. We have seen a steady regression from Oswalt since 2005 with 2009 being the bottom so far. Looking at some of his peripheral stats it is difficult to see a huge change in anything since 2005, so part of me asks if he was just unlucky or if playing at the band box known as Minute Made is finally taking its toll, but a BAPIP hovering just above .300, a WHIP right around 1.20 and K/BB numbers remaining steady, I can't put my finger on why the ERA continues to grow looking at these stats, but it is enough to scare me a bit. Other than gut instinct, Oswalt could be back in 2006 or 2008 form, but I doubt a return to 2005 or 2007 ever. We see a continued theme if we remove Street with the age of Team B's picks right at 34(Young will be 34 in October, Hunter is set to turn 35 in July and Oswalt will be 33 in August).
Rick Porcello
As soon as I write that, I look at the next pick. Rick Porcello is the type of pitcher every GM would love to have on their team--in real life. The guy is 21, tough as nails and keeps the ball down in the zone. He has a 54% GB percentage, threw 170+ innings and led his team to 14 wins in his rookie campaign. All at the age of 20. For some reason the projections(especially CHONE and MARCEL) seem to predict a breakdown in reliability, but his post-ASB numbers are actually better than his pre-ASB numbers. I feel like Porcello is more valuable in real life than fantasy, due largely to not missing enough bats(4.69K/9IP in 09). But he has the type of stuff that can allow him to strand a lot of runners, and I expect to see his HR rate drop as well. This may not be the fantasy breakout year for Porcello, but if he increases his K rate and remains as tough as he showed he can be in 2009, this will be a great pick and I could see him going in the top 20 SP taken in future drafts for years to come.
I rate this portion of the draft at a solid B. And look forward to learning how to be a little more level headed and taking proven vets in the middle rounds as Manager for Team B did here. A lot to learn for guys who get excited by draft guide sexiness or up and coming prospects. The stats are the same whether the pick is sexy or fantasy studs from 2005-2008.
We start off with a base of Miguel Cabrera, Jacoby Elsbury, Robinson Cano, John Lester, Mark Reynolds, Alexei Ramirez, and Ubaldo Jimenez. A nice blend of bounceback and proven commodities--little upside outside of Elsbury but solid. I think you will see that pattern continue in rounds 8-12.
Michael Young
Proven guy with little upside, but I suppose you know what you will get. I would like to go on record at this point by saying that I do not consider little upside a "bad" thing simply a thing. I wish I had the "old man skills" to accomplish. I like young here as a compliment to a solid base. high avg and consistency at 3B is something I chased too(read:Chipper Jones if he stays off the DL).
Torii Hunter
Near and dear to my heart as the kid who made it out of Pine Bluff, AR and stole our hearts with HR robbing catches against the baggy(I also hold the robbed HR of the ASG against Barry Lamar Bonds in a special place in my heart--even if Barry was cheating, he owned that entire year and Torii stole a little piece from him). Notice everything I said has to do with the past? That is where Hunter's best years will be found. However, even a slight regression from last year's production puts Torii in the .285 85 20 85 15 range. With Jay Bruce and Denard Span going on either side of him in the draft, I would say this pick stands out as safe and quite frankly smart if you were going OF in this round. Could have been worse--Team B could have picked a closer coming off his worst season ever in this round(like I did.)
Huston Street
See what I mean? Could have been worse. Jake Peavy, Scott Baker, Jered Weaver, John Lackey and Brett Anderson flanked this pick. Although Street withstood the dreaded spring MRI with little to no damage visible, we did not know this 3 days ago. He had a great year last year and should continue to do well for an exciting young Rockies squad. Team B took a chance here and it seems to have paid off so far. This closer is gonna be the top closer on Team B and will have to carry the load with Rauch and the ageless Hoffman accompanying him in the bullpen. I always hate closers, but they are a necessary evil. I think the manager of team C would be more than happy with 30+ saves and an ERA right around 3 like we saw last year. The only real fear here is injury, which would explain why he fell to round ten. If it weren't for the next guy, this would be the biggest risk in the "sweet spot" for Team B. Which brings me to Roy Oswalt.
Roy Oswalt
Almost the exact opposite of Street, this picked was flanked with RP. All guys who have established roles and are not sexy. So this one is a bit of a head scratch-er for me. We have seen a steady regression from Oswalt since 2005 with 2009 being the bottom so far. Looking at some of his peripheral stats it is difficult to see a huge change in anything since 2005, so part of me asks if he was just unlucky or if playing at the band box known as Minute Made is finally taking its toll, but a BAPIP hovering just above .300, a WHIP right around 1.20 and K/BB numbers remaining steady, I can't put my finger on why the ERA continues to grow looking at these stats, but it is enough to scare me a bit. Other than gut instinct, Oswalt could be back in 2006 or 2008 form, but I doubt a return to 2005 or 2007 ever. We see a continued theme if we remove Street with the age of Team B's picks right at 34(Young will be 34 in October, Hunter is set to turn 35 in July and Oswalt will be 33 in August).
Rick Porcello
As soon as I write that, I look at the next pick. Rick Porcello is the type of pitcher every GM would love to have on their team--in real life. The guy is 21, tough as nails and keeps the ball down in the zone. He has a 54% GB percentage, threw 170+ innings and led his team to 14 wins in his rookie campaign. All at the age of 20. For some reason the projections(especially CHONE and MARCEL) seem to predict a breakdown in reliability, but his post-ASB numbers are actually better than his pre-ASB numbers. I feel like Porcello is more valuable in real life than fantasy, due largely to not missing enough bats(4.69K/9IP in 09). But he has the type of stuff that can allow him to strand a lot of runners, and I expect to see his HR rate drop as well. This may not be the fantasy breakout year for Porcello, but if he increases his K rate and remains as tough as he showed he can be in 2009, this will be a great pick and I could see him going in the top 20 SP taken in future drafts for years to come.
I rate this portion of the draft at a solid B. And look forward to learning how to be a little more level headed and taking proven vets in the middle rounds as Manager for Team B did here. A lot to learn for guys who get excited by draft guide sexiness or up and coming prospects. The stats are the same whether the pick is sexy or fantasy studs from 2005-2008.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
The Draft Sweet Spot, Part Deux
Well to return the favor, I will now breakdown Deuce's 8-12th round picks. Following his format, Deuce's first picks looked like this: HanRam, King Felix, Jose Reyes, Kendry Morales, BJ Upton, Adam Jones, and Tommy Hanson. A solid, solid foundation. Now to get to the picks in question.
Cargo -- Reach alert. With two power/speed OF in tow, Deuce decided to grab a 3rd OF that projects to be a 20/20 guy with an average that doesn't help nor hurt 30 picks prior to his ADP. Curious pick.
Krod -- The 5th closer comes off the board in the 9th round during a 3-team closer run. Closers have fallen later and later in our drafts, as most teams adhere to the "Don't Pay for Saves" mantra. I am one of those teams, although I do see the value in getting a stud closer. Problem is, 09 K-Rod was not a stud. I would have preferred Heath Bell here, although possibly Deuce was scared off by a potential mid-season deal into a set-up role.
Marmol -- Wow... 2 closers in a row. Was not expecting this. Especially from a notorious Cub-hater. If Marmol can keep from walking the ballpark, he could be a top 5 closer. That is a big if though. Deuce might have been reeling from me stealing Brett Anderson from him. As much as I mock, Deuce did the last closer that could provide elite value, in my opinion.
Jurjens -- Fell further than I thought. Maybe had something to do with the sore shoulder. Deuce is allergic to starting pitchers older than 25. If Jair can build on what he did last year, he will be a steal. Even if he holds steady with last year's production, this pick is more in line with how Deuce described the Nolasco pick, ie something that could have been had 2 rounds later.
Chipper -- You know what you are going to get: high avg, high ops, serviceable power numbers, and 2 trips to the DL. If you are ok with that, then you have your man. Chipper was one of the last safe 3B taken, and was actually someone I had targeted myself. We are in Round 20 of our draft now, and I still don't have a 3B. Regardless, if Chipper can just limit himself to 1 DL stint, he can easily provide top 10 round value.
Cargo -- Reach alert. With two power/speed OF in tow, Deuce decided to grab a 3rd OF that projects to be a 20/20 guy with an average that doesn't help nor hurt 30 picks prior to his ADP. Curious pick.
Krod -- The 5th closer comes off the board in the 9th round during a 3-team closer run. Closers have fallen later and later in our drafts, as most teams adhere to the "Don't Pay for Saves" mantra. I am one of those teams, although I do see the value in getting a stud closer. Problem is, 09 K-Rod was not a stud. I would have preferred Heath Bell here, although possibly Deuce was scared off by a potential mid-season deal into a set-up role.
Marmol -- Wow... 2 closers in a row. Was not expecting this. Especially from a notorious Cub-hater. If Marmol can keep from walking the ballpark, he could be a top 5 closer. That is a big if though. Deuce might have been reeling from me stealing Brett Anderson from him. As much as I mock, Deuce did the last closer that could provide elite value, in my opinion.
Jurjens -- Fell further than I thought. Maybe had something to do with the sore shoulder. Deuce is allergic to starting pitchers older than 25. If Jair can build on what he did last year, he will be a steal. Even if he holds steady with last year's production, this pick is more in line with how Deuce described the Nolasco pick, ie something that could have been had 2 rounds later.
Chipper -- You know what you are going to get: high avg, high ops, serviceable power numbers, and 2 trips to the DL. If you are ok with that, then you have your man. Chipper was one of the last safe 3B taken, and was actually someone I had targeted myself. We are in Round 20 of our draft now, and I still don't have a 3B. Regardless, if Chipper can just limit himself to 1 DL stint, he can easily provide top 10 round value.
The Draft Sweet Spot
I was looking over our draft results trying to determine the most important rounds of the draft. We play in a keeper league, where the first 6 picks are kept. For this exercise I decided to exclude those picks for obvious reasons. So for the purpose of this article, I will compare and contrast picks 8-12 of some of the teams in our draft. For the sake of argument, I will use the 8-12 picks of three guys who happen to write for this site.
Team A has already drafted Braun, J.Upton, Markakis, Zobrist, Verlander, Carlos Lee, and Dunn. So he is sitting with 4 OF, 2B, 1B, and a Starting Pitcher. He follows his outfield depth with Elvis Andrus, Ricky Nolasco, Brett Anderson, Stephen Strasburg, and Alfonso Soriano. At the end of round 12 he has 5 OF, 1B, 2b, SS, 3 SP, and a guy who has never thrown a professional pitch. Being that it is a keeper league, my assumption is Strasburg is a pick for next year, so let's look at the other 4 picks in this 5 round bevy of upside and bounce back players. I like the Andrus pick directly behind the "keeper" rounds in round 8.At pick 93 overall I would give this pick the best pick of the bunch seal of approval. The chances of Carlos Lee increasing in value are slim to none and a young high upside guy who has proven himself for one year at the big league level is not only smart insurance, it could pay huge dividends in the long run as we could see a Furcal type player in his prime over the next several years. Nolasco at pick 100 is a bit of a risk, but with an ADP of 102 it is not a reach. I see a lot of projections that have Nolasco in the 175-185 K range with less than 200 IP, couple that with a 3.80 ERA(also seen in many projections) he could be a true fantasy all star. I fear that most of these projections are based on upside and we may see numbers closer to what we saw last year. I would guess the drafter would not be surprised to see an era above 4.00, in the 4.20 range with that high K total remaining. Good K totals, low wins and a slightly better than league average ERA--I feel like these guys are in abundance 2-3 rounds later but do not have the top end ceiling appeal that Nolasco does. This could be a fulcrum pick for Team A. Next we look at Brett Anderson taken at pick 117 overall. I am slightly bitter about this pick. I really wanted Anderson here and at pick 119 feel i got screwed. I even tried to trade up to 115 to ensure I got him. However with an ADP of 146 I thought I was safe, even in a keeper league. Alas, I was not safe. This pick shows tremendous upside and all the pundits love him. A ho hum year would be in the range of 4.00 era 136 Ks and barely breaching double digit wins on an Oakland team that could well finish last in the AL West. Although a breakthrough year at age 22 would be rare, this kid showed in his time up last year he has the stuff and composure to be a front of the rotation starter for years to come. His second half only got stronger last year, when a lot of young arms tire out. He boasted a 3.48 ERA, 4.2/1 K/BB ratio and averaged almost a K per IP--all with a whip settling around 1.19. If he can put up those types of numbers across an entire year, we would likely see the advent of a premier stud and potential keeper candidate. Needless to say, I like him a lot. I will let Webb discuss Strasburg if he sees fit. I do not. So let's wrap up team A with Alfonso Soriano at pick 141. With an ADP of 87, according to Mock Draft Central, I have to ask myself--what was the rest of the league thinking? I know we have some Cub haters and general dislike toward guys who hop when fielding fly balls, but Soriano seems to have found a decent home in the Friendly Confines and should be in for a solid year. The guy is never going to hit .300 again or go 40-40, but let's assume last year was a blip on the Soriano radar. I could easily see 20-15 while hitting .280 in an aging, but potent Cubs lineup that should yield 75 runs and 65 RBIs, right? I am not a Soriano fan, but when the OF taken directly before him were Raul Ibanez and Chris Coghlan--I love this pick. I seem to have gone a little long on Team A and will continue with Team B and C after I get a little more time.
Team A has already drafted Braun, J.Upton, Markakis, Zobrist, Verlander, Carlos Lee, and Dunn. So he is sitting with 4 OF, 2B, 1B, and a Starting Pitcher. He follows his outfield depth with Elvis Andrus, Ricky Nolasco, Brett Anderson, Stephen Strasburg, and Alfonso Soriano. At the end of round 12 he has 5 OF, 1B, 2b, SS, 3 SP, and a guy who has never thrown a professional pitch. Being that it is a keeper league, my assumption is Strasburg is a pick for next year, so let's look at the other 4 picks in this 5 round bevy of upside and bounce back players. I like the Andrus pick directly behind the "keeper" rounds in round 8.At pick 93 overall I would give this pick the best pick of the bunch seal of approval. The chances of Carlos Lee increasing in value are slim to none and a young high upside guy who has proven himself for one year at the big league level is not only smart insurance, it could pay huge dividends in the long run as we could see a Furcal type player in his prime over the next several years. Nolasco at pick 100 is a bit of a risk, but with an ADP of 102 it is not a reach. I see a lot of projections that have Nolasco in the 175-185 K range with less than 200 IP, couple that with a 3.80 ERA(also seen in many projections) he could be a true fantasy all star. I fear that most of these projections are based on upside and we may see numbers closer to what we saw last year. I would guess the drafter would not be surprised to see an era above 4.00, in the 4.20 range with that high K total remaining. Good K totals, low wins and a slightly better than league average ERA--I feel like these guys are in abundance 2-3 rounds later but do not have the top end ceiling appeal that Nolasco does. This could be a fulcrum pick for Team A. Next we look at Brett Anderson taken at pick 117 overall. I am slightly bitter about this pick. I really wanted Anderson here and at pick 119 feel i got screwed. I even tried to trade up to 115 to ensure I got him. However with an ADP of 146 I thought I was safe, even in a keeper league. Alas, I was not safe. This pick shows tremendous upside and all the pundits love him. A ho hum year would be in the range of 4.00 era 136 Ks and barely breaching double digit wins on an Oakland team that could well finish last in the AL West. Although a breakthrough year at age 22 would be rare, this kid showed in his time up last year he has the stuff and composure to be a front of the rotation starter for years to come. His second half only got stronger last year, when a lot of young arms tire out. He boasted a 3.48 ERA, 4.2/1 K/BB ratio and averaged almost a K per IP--all with a whip settling around 1.19. If he can put up those types of numbers across an entire year, we would likely see the advent of a premier stud and potential keeper candidate. Needless to say, I like him a lot. I will let Webb discuss Strasburg if he sees fit. I do not. So let's wrap up team A with Alfonso Soriano at pick 141. With an ADP of 87, according to Mock Draft Central, I have to ask myself--what was the rest of the league thinking? I know we have some Cub haters and general dislike toward guys who hop when fielding fly balls, but Soriano seems to have found a decent home in the Friendly Confines and should be in for a solid year. The guy is never going to hit .300 again or go 40-40, but let's assume last year was a blip on the Soriano radar. I could easily see 20-15 while hitting .280 in an aging, but potent Cubs lineup that should yield 75 runs and 65 RBIs, right? I am not a Soriano fan, but when the OF taken directly before him were Raul Ibanez and Chris Coghlan--I love this pick. I seem to have gone a little long on Team A and will continue with Team B and C after I get a little more time.
To Reach or Not To Reach...
We all face this dilemma during a draft. Do we take the safe choice that elicits silent, approving nods from our counterparts either sitting next to us or sitting at their desks across the world, or do we take the sexy player that we COVET but know that we shouldn't pick for at least 2 more rounds. I believe this quandary comes into play even more so in keeper leagues, such as the one I am currently apart of which was referenced above. Jason Heyward was drafted in the 3rd round... THE 3RD ROUND!!!. Now say what you will, that is a bold move. Yes, it will probably not pay off this year. For the next 3 years though? I for one, would much rather enjoy rooting for the players on my team than taking the safe, boring choice. To reach or not to reach, that is the question...
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
First Post
We are finishing up our "slow" portion of the draft. our league is funny--since we are all spread around the country we often resort to a "slow draft" where we all collaborate on a google spreadsheet and pick at roughly 12 hour intervals. Some of the guys take their time or have other things to do, some watch the draft sheet with baited breath always calling ahead when the clock flips over. This year, we had the pleasure of 10 of us getting together to do the first 8 rounds live--with the two bastards dialed in via webcast and whatnot. Well it went off without a hitch and when the format of our league permits, I could see us doing a live draft again. I guess I will set the ground rules for how we play and let you know that most of the other posts will a) be shorter and b) actually give you some information you may find useful. As for this one--prepare for long and worthless.
We started about 5 years ago, when most of us were wrapping up our college careers. We have had a little turnover and even lost a member due to illness, but we have battled through with 3 leagues(Baseball--the fantasy Holy Grail, Football--a sport that is really for the fantasy weakling, and basketball--a daily league that gets us from football to baseball pretty nicely) for many years and even drafted a constitution. 12 team leagues with customized scoring and highly competitive standings--everyone has their specialty sport and some excel at 2, but few can dominate all 3.
Anyway, without further explanation, I will open the blog up to the real value add members and let them talk about something useful.
We started about 5 years ago, when most of us were wrapping up our college careers. We have had a little turnover and even lost a member due to illness, but we have battled through with 3 leagues(Baseball--the fantasy Holy Grail, Football--a sport that is really for the fantasy weakling, and basketball--a daily league that gets us from football to baseball pretty nicely) for many years and even drafted a constitution. 12 team leagues with customized scoring and highly competitive standings--everyone has their specialty sport and some excel at 2, but few can dominate all 3.
Anyway, without further explanation, I will open the blog up to the real value add members and let them talk about something useful.
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