Ok, so I took my shot at Webb and he fired back. I actually like his picks in 8-12 more than mine. As anyone will tell you, if it were possible--I would have no closers on my team. I actually did that one year and all my SU guys turned into closers by the end of the year. If there is a position in baseball with higher turnover, I can't think of it. let's look at Team B.
We start off with a base of Miguel Cabrera, Jacoby Elsbury, Robinson Cano, John Lester, Mark Reynolds, Alexei Ramirez, and Ubaldo Jimenez. A nice blend of bounceback and proven commodities--little upside outside of Elsbury but solid. I think you will see that pattern continue in rounds 8-12.
Michael Young
Proven guy with little upside, but I suppose you know what you will get. I would like to go on record at this point by saying that I do not consider little upside a "bad" thing simply a thing. I wish I had the "old man skills" to accomplish. I like young here as a compliment to a solid base. high avg and consistency at 3B is something I chased too(read:Chipper Jones if he stays off the DL).
Torii Hunter
Near and dear to my heart as the kid who made it out of Pine Bluff, AR and stole our hearts with HR robbing catches against the baggy(I also hold the robbed HR of the ASG against Barry Lamar Bonds in a special place in my heart--even if Barry was cheating, he owned that entire year and Torii stole a little piece from him). Notice everything I said has to do with the past? That is where Hunter's best years will be found. However, even a slight regression from last year's production puts Torii in the .285 85 20 85 15 range. With Jay Bruce and Denard Span going on either side of him in the draft, I would say this pick stands out as safe and quite frankly smart if you were going OF in this round. Could have been worse--Team B could have picked a closer coming off his worst season ever in this round(like I did.)
Huston Street
See what I mean? Could have been worse. Jake Peavy, Scott Baker, Jered Weaver, John Lackey and Brett Anderson flanked this pick. Although Street withstood the dreaded spring MRI with little to no damage visible, we did not know this 3 days ago. He had a great year last year and should continue to do well for an exciting young Rockies squad. Team B took a chance here and it seems to have paid off so far. This closer is gonna be the top closer on Team B and will have to carry the load with Rauch and the ageless Hoffman accompanying him in the bullpen. I always hate closers, but they are a necessary evil. I think the manager of team C would be more than happy with 30+ saves and an ERA right around 3 like we saw last year. The only real fear here is injury, which would explain why he fell to round ten. If it weren't for the next guy, this would be the biggest risk in the "sweet spot" for Team B. Which brings me to Roy Oswalt.
Roy Oswalt
Almost the exact opposite of Street, this picked was flanked with RP. All guys who have established roles and are not sexy. So this one is a bit of a head scratch-er for me. We have seen a steady regression from Oswalt since 2005 with 2009 being the bottom so far. Looking at some of his peripheral stats it is difficult to see a huge change in anything since 2005, so part of me asks if he was just unlucky or if playing at the band box known as Minute Made is finally taking its toll, but a BAPIP hovering just above .300, a WHIP right around 1.20 and K/BB numbers remaining steady, I can't put my finger on why the ERA continues to grow looking at these stats, but it is enough to scare me a bit. Other than gut instinct, Oswalt could be back in 2006 or 2008 form, but I doubt a return to 2005 or 2007 ever. We see a continued theme if we remove Street with the age of Team B's picks right at 34(Young will be 34 in October, Hunter is set to turn 35 in July and Oswalt will be 33 in August).
Rick Porcello
As soon as I write that, I look at the next pick. Rick Porcello is the type of pitcher every GM would love to have on their team--in real life. The guy is 21, tough as nails and keeps the ball down in the zone. He has a 54% GB percentage, threw 170+ innings and led his team to 14 wins in his rookie campaign. All at the age of 20. For some reason the projections(especially CHONE and MARCEL) seem to predict a breakdown in reliability, but his post-ASB numbers are actually better than his pre-ASB numbers. I feel like Porcello is more valuable in real life than fantasy, due largely to not missing enough bats(4.69K/9IP in 09). But he has the type of stuff that can allow him to strand a lot of runners, and I expect to see his HR rate drop as well. This may not be the fantasy breakout year for Porcello, but if he increases his K rate and remains as tough as he showed he can be in 2009, this will be a great pick and I could see him going in the top 20 SP taken in future drafts for years to come.
I rate this portion of the draft at a solid B. And look forward to learning how to be a little more level headed and taking proven vets in the middle rounds as Manager for Team B did here. A lot to learn for guys who get excited by draft guide sexiness or up and coming prospects. The stats are the same whether the pick is sexy or fantasy studs from 2005-2008.
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Nice assessment Deuce. I don't agree with all of it, but nice none the less.
ReplyDeleteOn the keepers, I will give you Miggy and Cano, what you see is what you get, not much upside, just really good. With the Reynolds K rate, it is hard to hope for better than what he did last year or even an avg as high as .260. Elsbury, we agree on. I have to disagree with you saying there is little other upside though. Ramirez is more than just a bounce back guy to me. He can step up and improve on his rookie year numbers after what was hopefully an aberration but still not terrible sophomore campaign last year. He was the best available MI at the time he was drafted and has the ability to improve his draft status and I think could get close to 20/20 with .800 OPS in the future. Thank you US Cellular. That would greatly improve his draft position in the next couple of seasons, especially in our scarcity loving league. Lester and Jimenez are both in their mid-20s. While I think Lester is a much better position to continue to progress as far away from Coors as possible, there is no reason to think both can't continue to move up the draft board as SP.
Michael Young
I agree totally on Young. What you see is what you get. Third base isn't what it once was in terms of depth, and getting a reliable 3B with a great avg in the 8th round, I will take it and run. Now with Young, Cano, and Miggy, I have a nice fortress around Mark Reynolds' avg to be able survive week in and week out as he strikes out thousands of times, and can perhaps take another low average risk later. The next 3B taken was Beltre in the 11th round and Beckham (7th) and Figgins (6th) were the two taken in front of him. Considering I needed avg and 3B, I pleased I got Young and didn't have to settle on Beltre later without solving the avg problem.
Torii Hunter
I don't have a lot to disagree with here. I wanted Jay Bruce and some upside here, but he fell the pick before me. Looking at Hunter's numbers, I don't see a decline because of age or for any other reason so if I can get production somewhere between 08 and 09 numbers I will be happy.
Houston Street
What can I say, I got in the closer game late and was going to wait another round until Peavy fell. Of the tier 2 closers, the only left were Street and Carlos "9 walks an outing" Marmol. I hate even the need for closers and I already miss my Paplebon security blanket that I've had since he was first doing that weird dance he does. I think I did the best I could right here and am glad I didn't jump earlier or ride the SP run that was going on through here, because as you will see I am pleased with what I got next...
Roy Oswalt
He is getting older, and may be declining, but I am willing to take a risk that his ratios balloning had more to do with his back injury than his 33rd birthday. We shall see. Dempster (lets say personal preference kept me from drafting him) and Price (who I think went too early) were the next two pitchers taken. This is one of my least favorite picks I made, but also felt he was my worth taking the risk for a bounce back.
Rick Porcello,
Finally the youth of my team and the league for that matter. I recognize that this kid is not a power pitcher, but I think the criticism he doesn't miss enough at bats might be a little unfair in the long run. This kid has been more protected than anyone I have ever seen, save maybe the waterhead, Joba. He has had to learn in his two professional years how to be efficient with his pitches. I think the fact he threw 170 innings on such a tight leash says he knows what he is doing. I think innings and K rate will be up. Yeah, he should be a top 20 pitcher for years to come, he could be even better than that...
Solid B, I'll take that. I had a very solid keeper portion of the draft, and as always in our upside loving league was able to get a lot of guys at a slot much lower than their ADP late. A solid B bridges that gap just fine.
Your boui,
RoyceClaytonKershaw