The Draft Sweet Spot

I was looking over our draft results trying to determine the most important rounds of the draft. We play in a keeper league, where the first 6 picks are kept. For this exercise I decided to exclude those picks for obvious reasons. So for the purpose of this article, I will compare and contrast picks 8-12 of some of the teams in our draft. For the sake of argument, I will use the 8-12 picks of three guys who happen to write for this site.

Team A has already drafted Braun, J.Upton, Markakis, Zobrist, Verlander, Carlos Lee, and Dunn. So he is sitting with 4 OF, 2B, 1B, and a Starting Pitcher. He follows his outfield depth with Elvis Andrus, Ricky Nolasco, Brett Anderson, Stephen Strasburg, and Alfonso Soriano. At the end of round 12 he has 5 OF, 1B, 2b, SS, 3 SP, and a guy who has never thrown a professional pitch. Being that it is a keeper league, my assumption is Strasburg is a pick for next year, so let's look at the other 4 picks in this 5 round bevy of upside and bounce back players. I like the Andrus pick directly behind the "keeper" rounds in round 8.At pick 93 overall I would give this pick the best pick of the bunch seal of approval. The chances of Carlos Lee increasing in value are slim to none and a young high upside guy who has proven himself for one year at the big league level is not only smart insurance, it could pay huge dividends in the long run as we could see a Furcal type player in his prime over the next several years. Nolasco at pick 100 is a bit of a risk, but with an ADP of 102 it is not a reach. I see a lot of projections that have Nolasco in the 175-185 K range with less than 200 IP, couple that with a 3.80 ERA(also seen in many projections) he could be a true fantasy all star. I fear that most of these projections are based on upside and we may see numbers closer to what we saw last year. I would guess the drafter would not be surprised to see an era above 4.00, in the 4.20 range with that high K total remaining. Good K totals, low wins and a slightly better than league average ERA--I feel like these guys are in abundance 2-3 rounds later but do not have the top end ceiling appeal that Nolasco does. This could be a fulcrum pick for Team A. Next we look at Brett Anderson taken at pick 117 overall. I am slightly bitter about this pick. I really wanted Anderson here and at pick 119 feel i got screwed. I even tried to trade up to 115 to ensure I got him. However with an ADP of 146 I thought I was safe, even in a keeper league. Alas, I was not safe. This pick shows tremendous upside and all the pundits love him. A ho hum year would be in the range of 4.00 era 136 Ks and barely breaching double digit wins on an Oakland team that could well finish last in the AL West. Although a breakthrough year at age 22 would be rare, this kid showed in his time up last year he has the stuff and composure to be a front of the rotation starter for years to come. His second half only got stronger last year, when a lot of young arms tire out. He boasted a 3.48 ERA, 4.2/1 K/BB ratio and averaged almost a K per IP--all with a whip settling around 1.19. If he can put up those types of numbers across an entire year, we would likely see the advent of a premier stud and potential keeper candidate. Needless to say, I like him a lot. I will let Webb discuss Strasburg if he sees fit. I do not. So let's wrap up team A with Alfonso Soriano at pick 141. With an ADP of 87, according to Mock Draft Central, I have to ask myself--what was the rest of the league thinking? I know we have some Cub haters and general dislike toward guys who hop when fielding fly balls, but Soriano seems to have found a decent home in the Friendly Confines and should be in for a solid year. The guy is never going to hit .300 again or go 40-40, but let's assume last year was a blip on the Soriano radar. I could easily see 20-15 while hitting .280 in an aging, but potent Cubs lineup that should yield 75 runs and 65 RBIs, right? I am not a Soriano fan, but when the OF taken directly before him were Raul Ibanez and Chris Coghlan--I love this pick. I seem to have gone a little long on Team A and will continue with Team B and C after I get a little more time.