My Turn in the Draft Sweet Spot

Alright, so I get a shot at this new little game. I took exception with some of Deuce's assessments of my team and I have little doubt Luke will have a few of his own when I am done here.

So let us start with the keeper rounds + 1: Arod, Halladay, Rollins, McCutchen, Granderson, Beckett, Beckham. A nice haul for the early rounds of a keeper league. I love Granderson's potential in that lineup hitting balls into that porch and he got him below slot for his ADP. McCutchen was over coveted in our league going in the mid-40s while his ADP is anywhere from mid-60s to early 80s depending on the publication (Yahoo and Roto). So flip those two guys and I guess you have them in their right spot. Beckham is the one that really surprises me here, but he can hit and can play into his 75 draft position easily. Now on to what really matters, the Sweet Spot.

Round 8, Hunter Pence
Hunter Pence is Luke's crack. He loves Hunter Pence like I love cake. He isn't a reach, and actually a little behind schedule with his ADP. His power and speed are stable, he figured out the strike out problem from 2008, and he isn't injury prone. However, the reason I don't like this pick is because he already has two OFs early. Luke was stuck in a weird spot, the next two non-OF position players to fall were 2B and they didn't go for another full round. So perhaps it was the best bat available, maybe it was too early to go with a closer and with Halladay and Beckett he felt comfortable with his SP. I think he should have done something different, but at least he has OF locked up and start chasing other positions.

Round 9, Andrew Bailey
So much for making excuses for Luke, just 5 picks later, he grabs the 5th closer off the board and the third in the three picks in a closer run. (Note: Our league is prone to closer runs) Andrew Bailey is a stud, with all the upside in the world and at the time this pick was made, no reports of elbow problems had surfaced. He says he will be ready for opening day, and if that is the case, better for Luke. Hopefully he is a better dancer than Papelbon because he has the ability to be the next young stud closer.

Round 10, Matt Garza
Will the real Matt Garza please stand up. Man, what a nice jump in K rate from 2008 to 2009, 2 full Ks per inning. Wow, what terrible jumps in BB rate, HRs allowed, and ERA. The good thing is WHIP stayed steady. Garza is a good pitcher, and could still bust out and be an absolute stud. Is he a risk here? If he lands somewhere between 08 and 09, no. Is he steal? If he figures out how to match his BB rate, and minimize HR allowed from 08 coupled with the K rate from 09, yes probably so.

Round 11, Carlos Pena
I love Carlos Pena, two years ago he helped carry me into the finals of our league. But he was hitting with some guys with really good averages (Albert, Miggy, and Young) and his wasn't so terrible. For Luke, it addresses his hole at 1B with most of the big hitters already gone and he gets the last slugger CI. Also this was pick 123, his ADP for Rotoworld is 74. Not a bad pull for the 11 round, with 40HR, 100RBI .800+ OPS potential, but what I don't like about it is another sub-.250 avg. I try to stay away from the big avg drains without drafting high avg guys to compliment them. Luke apparently embraces them, at this point in the draft he still doesn't have a batter that hit over .290 last year. Still, the pick fills a hole and even though it is an avg drain, the counting numbers and OPS are huge.

Round 12, Russell Martin
What can you say, only the 5 catcher to come off the board at this point, this guy was a keeper last year. Sure, there is some fear the Dodgers have already ruined him a la the Cubs with Wood and Prior (a jab at Lucas the Cub fan). He is going to spend some time on the DL so I am sure Luke will be picking up a substitute, but if he gets back in late April and produces at 07-08 range then this is a huge steal. If Torre truly has ruined his power and speed with too much work, then it is way too early to be drafting a catcher with his production. (Full disclosure: I have never taken a catcher earlier than the 23 round.) Big risk here, and frankly I don't like it. But I will address that more in a moment...

To sum it up, Luke did a good job at getting great value with each of his picks. He didn't reach, he took guys with high ceilings and basements that aren't too deep. He took a chance with some potential lingering issues in Bailey and Martin. All in all there isn't a ton I can say bad about each of the picks individually, however, at this point in the draft (and admittedly after the draft too) I don't think he has done a great job of assembling a team. The value is good but the stats don't complement each other incredibly well. At this point in the draft, he has no 2B, which means all that is left is scraps at the scarce position. His pitching is solid but I would have like to see him try to get something a little different out of the Beckham, Pence, Pena and Martin picks. All in all, the picks weren't bad, and those looking for trades, come to Luke early and often and no doubt he will be using surpluses at OF and SP to fill other needs.

Leaving the Sweet Spot,

RoyceClaytonKershaw